This will be a short post.
Attempts to Forecast Team Win-Loss Records
A.) Obviously, you factor in the WINNING PERCENTAGE from the last year. The 0.605 winning percentage 2012 Nationals figure to have a better chance at a 0.600 percentage, than, say, my favorite team (The .377 Cubs.)
B.) PLAYER ADDITIONS can be factored in using WAR. For Example: If the Cubs sign a 6 WAR player to replace their 2.5 WAR in a position, you add 3.5 wins to their expected total. Sounds easy.
C.) LUCK Batting Average on Balls in Play is a good measure of luck. We'll assume the players on a team round out to even. An example of a New Murphy Times stat called "Team Luck Score":
[(Batter's BABIP/League BABIP) + (League BABIP/Pitcher's BABIP)]/2.
Average is one, of course.
Tune in for another installment and Team Luck Score rankings!
Attempts to Forecast Team Win-Loss Records
A.) Obviously, you factor in the WINNING PERCENTAGE from the last year. The 0.605 winning percentage 2012 Nationals figure to have a better chance at a 0.600 percentage, than, say, my favorite team (The .377 Cubs.)
B.) PLAYER ADDITIONS can be factored in using WAR. For Example: If the Cubs sign a 6 WAR player to replace their 2.5 WAR in a position, you add 3.5 wins to their expected total. Sounds easy.
C.) LUCK Batting Average on Balls in Play is a good measure of luck. We'll assume the players on a team round out to even. An example of a New Murphy Times stat called "Team Luck Score":
[(Batter's BABIP/League BABIP) + (League BABIP/Pitcher's BABIP)]/2.
Average is one, of course.
Tune in for another installment and Team Luck Score rankings!
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