This is a question that's been talked about. Is Jeff Samardzija our ace? Is Travis Wood? Is Edwin Jackson or Chris Rusin? (cough, cough...)

Let's look at Samardzija's numbers: 8-13, 4.34 ERA. Wood? 9-12, 3.10 ERA. Has to be Travis Wood, right?

Wrong, unless you like ERA by itself. (Please don't!)

Obviously, Wood had a better year, by basic metrics, last season compared to Samardzija. A full run less of ERA is pretty good, right?

But wait! Let's look at their FIPs!
Samardzija: 3.77.
Wood: 3.89.

So this is done, right? Samardzija is a little bit better than Wood by superior FIP, Wood is better only in inferior ERA, and Wood's .248 BABIP should normalize. What if it does? Wood's career BABIP is .264. This is not a high-BABIP pitcher. Neither walks a lot of batters: 2.97 for Wood every nine innings, 3.27 for Samardzija. 

But Samardzija relies a lot less on BABIP because strikes out more batters, walks more batters, and gives up more home runs than Wood does.

Samardzija K/9: 9.01
Wood K/9: 6.48
Samardzija HR/9: 1.05
Wood HR/9: 0.81

Wood has been luckier in a way from 2012 to 2013. But it isn't by BABIP. It's in home runs.

Wood HR/9, 2011: 0.85
Wood HR/9, 2012: 1.44
Wood HR/9, 2013: 0.81

So in 2011, Wood was High-BABIP (.324), low home-run. In 2012, Wood was Low-BABIP but gave up a lot of home runs. And this year, BABIP and HR/9 clicked. And his BB/9 has decreased in each of the last two seasons.

Is he doing anything differently? Yes.

Travis Wood's cutters, 2011: 16.8%
2012: 30.3%
2013: 34.0%

So the better and more-thrown cutters lead to a better BABIP as Wood's cutter rate rose from 2011 to 2012.

This was accompanied by drops in fastballs and changeups. So as Wood continues to throw more cutters, he should stay around 2012-13 BABIP level. If he can keep giving up HRs at 2013's rate, he's an ace or at least a very good no.2 starter.

Al Yellon of bleedcubbieblue.com (must-read for Cubs fans) has this to say in the link that I'll put at the end of this post.

The options? According to Al Yellon:

AJ Hinch, ex-DBacks manager
Manny Acta, ex-Indians and Nationals manager
Rick Renteria, Padres coach
Dave Martinez, Rays coach
Sandy Alomar Junior, Indians coach
and his choice, Tony Pena, a Yankees coach and ex-Royals manager.

Pena apparently "gave up" on the Royals, as some commenters said. In the middle of the 2005 season. He said he couldn't take it anymore and...resigned.

The Royals were 8-25 at the time. The question raised was: "Will Pena give up on us too?"

Of course, Pena isn't the only choice. Alomar and Martinez are good options as well. Rick Renteria is a good coach and is mentioned in Dirk Hayhurst's The Bullpen Gospels, a great baseball book, but doesn't have managing experience in the bigs like Theo Epstein seems to want. Acta and Hinch are not thought of as top choices. I personally don't want Acta, and Renteria probably won't make it due to lack of experience. Martinez might not make it for that either.

So the options left are Martinez, Renteria (probably not, but I'd be fine with him), Hinch (probably not, but I'd be fine with him), Alomar, and Pena. 

Epstein has interviewed Alomar and is looking at Hinch, Acta, Martinez, and Renteria for interviews soon.

Maybe Epstein will draw names out of a Cubs hat. Who knows?


http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2013/10/12/4830774/cubs-manager-search

James Russell is the only lefty reliever and one of three lefty pitchers on the Cubs. Is he enough?


There are many right-handed relievers, each with a sizable chunk of failures on success, on the Chicago Cubs. Bowden, Villanueva, Strop, Parker, and on. But for lefties, there is only James Russell. It's not like Russell is horrible. His ERA is 3.51 this year and was 3.25 last year. But if you look closely, you'll notice things like...

1. His .257 BABIP.
2. A 5.54 ERA in the second half.
3. How opponents are slugging over .700 against him in high leverage spots.

  4.    How righties hit .297 off of him this year.


So it's obvious James Russell is not our long-term setup lefty of the future. Needing one, the Cubs will invariably turn to the free-agent market, as what rebuilding team trades for a lefty reliever?


They'll probably want somebody under thirty, as the reliever is for the playoff runs (hopefully) of 2015 and 2016 and onwards. So, here are those 30-and-under lefties, by order in fangraphs: 


JP Howell, Dodgers: Gives up almost no home runs this year with a puny 2.6% HR/FB rate. He's a ground-ball hurler anyways at 57% ground balls. It's pretty obvious that giving up few home runs is luck, as Tampa Bay and Los Angeles are almost the same in home run park factor, says espn.com. He's thirty, yet righties aren't hitting him too well, although there is still a seventy-point gap.
Boone Logan, Yankees:
A high-punchout reliever with a great K/BB ratio well over four. He's giving up a lot of home runs this year, but still has a 2.68 ERA. Will the Yankees pay to keep Logan? It's worth noting that this year, lefties are hitting him nine points better than righties. He's twenty-nine, but he could be a good choice.
Manny Parra, Reds:
Almost thirty-one, the oldest of the bunch. Very high BABIP this season at over .320, but a high LOB cancels that out. High walks. Huge righty-lefty gap at over one hundred points. Meh.
Eric O'Flaherty, Braves: 
Coming off of TJ Surgery, but still 28. K/BB nothing spectacular. Huge BABIP, and seems to be more of a LOOGY with a sixty-point split.


Keep in mind that Wrigley Field = more home runs, which discounts Howell. A lot. O'Flaherty's uncertain with TJ. For some reason, I just don't like Parra as much as I like Logan. 


Boone Logan for the Cubbies!