This is a question that's been talked about. Is Jeff Samardzija our ace? Is Travis Wood? Is Edwin Jackson or Chris Rusin? (cough, cough...)
Let's look at Samardzija's numbers: 8-13, 4.34 ERA. Wood? 9-12, 3.10 ERA. Has to be Travis Wood, right?
Wrong, unless you like ERA by itself. (Please don't!)
Obviously, Wood had a better year, by basic metrics, last season compared to Samardzija. A full run less of ERA is pretty good, right?
But wait! Let's look at their FIPs!
Samardzija: 3.77.
Wood: 3.89.
So this is done, right? Samardzija is a little bit better than Wood by superior FIP, Wood is better only in inferior ERA, and Wood's .248 BABIP should normalize. What if it does? Wood's career BABIP is .264. This is not a high-BABIP pitcher. Neither walks a lot of batters: 2.97 for Wood every nine innings, 3.27 for Samardzija.
But Samardzija relies a lot less on BABIP because strikes out more batters, walks more batters, and gives up more home runs than Wood does.
Samardzija K/9: 9.01
Wood K/9: 6.48
Samardzija HR/9: 1.05
Wood HR/9: 0.81
Wood has been luckier in a way from 2012 to 2013. But it isn't by BABIP. It's in home runs.
Wood HR/9, 2011: 0.85
Wood HR/9, 2012: 1.44
Wood HR/9, 2013: 0.81
So in 2011, Wood was High-BABIP (.324), low home-run. In 2012, Wood was Low-BABIP but gave up a lot of home runs. And this year, BABIP and HR/9 clicked. And his BB/9 has decreased in each of the last two seasons.
Is he doing anything differently? Yes.
Travis Wood's cutters, 2011: 16.8%
2012: 30.3%
2013: 34.0%
So the better and more-thrown cutters lead to a better BABIP as Wood's cutter rate rose from 2011 to 2012.
This was accompanied by drops in fastballs and changeups. So as Wood continues to throw more cutters, he should stay around 2012-13 BABIP level. If he can keep giving up HRs at 2013's rate, he's an ace or at least a very good no.2 starter.
Let's look at Samardzija's numbers: 8-13, 4.34 ERA. Wood? 9-12, 3.10 ERA. Has to be Travis Wood, right?
Wrong, unless you like ERA by itself. (Please don't!)
Obviously, Wood had a better year, by basic metrics, last season compared to Samardzija. A full run less of ERA is pretty good, right?
But wait! Let's look at their FIPs!
Samardzija: 3.77.
Wood: 3.89.
So this is done, right? Samardzija is a little bit better than Wood by superior FIP, Wood is better only in inferior ERA, and Wood's .248 BABIP should normalize. What if it does? Wood's career BABIP is .264. This is not a high-BABIP pitcher. Neither walks a lot of batters: 2.97 for Wood every nine innings, 3.27 for Samardzija.
But Samardzija relies a lot less on BABIP because strikes out more batters, walks more batters, and gives up more home runs than Wood does.
Samardzija K/9: 9.01
Wood K/9: 6.48
Samardzija HR/9: 1.05
Wood HR/9: 0.81
Wood has been luckier in a way from 2012 to 2013. But it isn't by BABIP. It's in home runs.
Wood HR/9, 2011: 0.85
Wood HR/9, 2012: 1.44
Wood HR/9, 2013: 0.81
So in 2011, Wood was High-BABIP (.324), low home-run. In 2012, Wood was Low-BABIP but gave up a lot of home runs. And this year, BABIP and HR/9 clicked. And his BB/9 has decreased in each of the last two seasons.
Is he doing anything differently? Yes.
Travis Wood's cutters, 2011: 16.8%
2012: 30.3%
2013: 34.0%
So the better and more-thrown cutters lead to a better BABIP as Wood's cutter rate rose from 2011 to 2012.
This was accompanied by drops in fastballs and changeups. So as Wood continues to throw more cutters, he should stay around 2012-13 BABIP level. If he can keep giving up HRs at 2013's rate, he's an ace or at least a very good no.2 starter.
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