10-14, 4.80 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 2.6 WAR, 202 IP
12-8, 3.38 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.1 WAR, 173 IP
8-9, 4.57 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.3 WAR, 170 IP
Three different pitchers? No, it's Ryan Dempster in three different years. Although it might seem like an unlucky but still somewhat decent innings-eater, a nice two- or three-starter, and a pitcher who flat-out sucks, this is Ryan Dempster in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
So: What has befallen Ryan Dempster? It appears obvious:
2011 HR/9 rate: 1.02
2012 HR/9 rate: 0.99
2013 HR/9 rate: 1.37
2011 BABIP: .324
2012 BABIP: .277
2013 BABIP: .296
2011 K/BB: 2.33
2012 K/BB: 2.94
2013 K/BB: 1.99
So, a recap: In 2011-12, Ryan Dempster was giving up about one homer per every nine innings. This puts him pretty below-average homer-wise, around Mike Leake, Mike MInor, and Edinson Volquez.
In 2013, that rate surged to 1.37. This was sixth-worst in the league among qualifying pitchers. He was around RA Dickey and Ian Kennedy.
His low 2012 BABIP also proved something: Those with career .300 BABIPs should not be expected to post .277 BABIPs.
And, of course, he wasn't throwing as many strikes, which tends to be a problem.
An examination of some fangraphs batted-ball stats reveals that his fly-ball rate ticked up two percent. His ground-ball rate went down accordingly.
His fastball rate reveals this:
2011: 57%
2012: 45%
2013: 49%
His slider rate has steadily gone down. And after debuting an 11% cutter rate last season, he's docked that to 5%. What's gone up? His splitter.
If the stats can be trusted, he's obviously starting to hang splitters. Or the Red Sox probably shouldn't have signed a 35-year-old to a 13-million-a-year deal.
12-8, 3.38 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.1 WAR, 173 IP
8-9, 4.57 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.3 WAR, 170 IP
Three different pitchers? No, it's Ryan Dempster in three different years. Although it might seem like an unlucky but still somewhat decent innings-eater, a nice two- or three-starter, and a pitcher who flat-out sucks, this is Ryan Dempster in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
So: What has befallen Ryan Dempster? It appears obvious:
2011 HR/9 rate: 1.02
2012 HR/9 rate: 0.99
2013 HR/9 rate: 1.37
2011 BABIP: .324
2012 BABIP: .277
2013 BABIP: .296
2011 K/BB: 2.33
2012 K/BB: 2.94
2013 K/BB: 1.99
So, a recap: In 2011-12, Ryan Dempster was giving up about one homer per every nine innings. This puts him pretty below-average homer-wise, around Mike Leake, Mike MInor, and Edinson Volquez.
In 2013, that rate surged to 1.37. This was sixth-worst in the league among qualifying pitchers. He was around RA Dickey and Ian Kennedy.
His low 2012 BABIP also proved something: Those with career .300 BABIPs should not be expected to post .277 BABIPs.
And, of course, he wasn't throwing as many strikes, which tends to be a problem.
An examination of some fangraphs batted-ball stats reveals that his fly-ball rate ticked up two percent. His ground-ball rate went down accordingly.
His fastball rate reveals this:
2011: 57%
2012: 45%
2013: 49%
His slider rate has steadily gone down. And after debuting an 11% cutter rate last season, he's docked that to 5%. What's gone up? His splitter.
If the stats can be trusted, he's obviously starting to hang splitters. Or the Red Sox probably shouldn't have signed a 35-year-old to a 13-million-a-year deal.
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